For FY2025/2026, the lender continues to project growth at 4.4%, while keeping its 2026 outlook unchanged at 4.5%.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised upward its forecast for Egypt’s economic growth in 2025, now expecting the economy to expand by 4.8%, compared with 4% in its May estimates, according to EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report.
The report highlighted stronger-than-anticipated activity across key sectors, particularly manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation, which helped lift overall growth expectations for the year ending June 2025 to 4.5%.
For FY2025/2026, the lender continues to project growth at 4.4%, while keeping its 2026 outlook unchanged at 4.5%.
The International Monetary Fund foresees growth of 4.1% this fiscal year, gradually rising to 4.6% in FY2026/2027, while Fitch Solutions’ research arm BMI expects 4.7%.
Deutsche Bank is more aligned with the EBRD’s optimism, projecting 4.8% growth on the back of stronger domestic demand.
Egypt’s economic performance in 2024 also exceeded earlier estimates, with growth now assessed at 3.1%, up from the 2.9% figure previously anticipated.
At the same time, inflation has been cooling rapidly, averaging 15.7% between January and July 2025—half the pace recorded a year earlier.
August’s figure of 12% marked the lowest level since March 2022, and many analysts believe this downward trajectory will continue.
External indicators have also shown resilience. Remittances surged by 82.7% year-on-year during the period from July 2024 to March 2025, while foreign investors have returned to the local debt market, holding nearly 45% of outstanding treasury bills by March.
However, debt sustainability remains a pressing concern. Servicing costs are expected to absorb around 65% of government revenues in FY2025/2026, with the EBRD warning that slow progress on structural reforms continues to weigh on Egypt’s long-term growth potential.
In the broader regional context, growth across the southern and eastern Mediterranean is projected at 3.7% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, supported by a revival in tourism, increased remittances, and more balanced external accounts.
